The M's: what to do now?

In the blogosphere, on sports talk radio today there is endless discussion of what the M's should do now.  Their pitching continues to be impressive, the starters especially, but really all around. The hitting continues to be bad.  Not just bad, ridiculously sucky.  How sucky?  Geoff Baker noted the M's have scored 11 runs in their last six games, exactly the number of goals the Sounders have scored in their last six games. When everyone talks about the Mariners' record when they score four or more runs versus their record when they score fewer than four runs, I often feel like we just well may be talking about the likelihood of exploring for fossil fuels in Alpha Centauri.  It isn't happening this year.

It really settles out to two positions.  One is that the M's are trying out the kids.  Even with the trading deadline coming up, and availability of a bat or two being likely being available for a price either in increased salary or for a prospect or two.  The thinking being that the M's could make that four run per game threshold for a price in salary and/or players.  Who is available?  That's not so clear.  Would the M's make a move?  That's become a lot more muddled the past twenty four hours.  Shannon Drayer reported in her blog M's confirmed they are unlikely to spend more money.  With Erik Bedard having a fabulous year, his one year $1 million dollar salary is laden with incentives that will likely cost ownership in the range of $7 million.  Baker takes ownership to task, failing to support a historically superior pitching staff with even the effort to acquire adequate hitting talent.  The division is weak, the pitching is good, and with even a modest increase in run scoring ability, this team could win the division, and in a down year for offense, could ride its pitching a long way in the playoffs.

Erik Bedard's success on the mound has dampened owners' enthusiasm for as they watch his contracted incentive clauses pile up.  The M's owe Bedard another $6 million this year.  Pay the man; he's earned it.

The flip side of this argument was voiced by KJR's Dave Groszby on Bob and Groz today.  The kids are doing better than anyone thought they could.  Let them play and find out what we have.  Unlike past Mariners "rebuilding" efforts, the M's really have tried to build around kids up from the minor leagues. Justin Smoak has performed adequately in his first full year in the majors and given us a look at his potential, but he still is not the consistent hitter we hope he'll become.  Dustin Ackley, in his nine games has looked like the diamond we hoped he'd be-a solid hitter with speed, and not the defensive liability many feared. Michael Pineda performs like the big man he is, challenging Bedard and  Felix Hernandez for the best pitching performance of the year. Mike Carp, Greg Halman, and Carlos Peguero look like, well, rookies.  Eric Wedge says they're learning and making adjustments.  Each has made sporadic contributions to the team.  Do they have enough talent to stick? Those in this camp say we won't know unless they play regularly.  Don't deal them or other gems in the minors.  They offer the real road to success, but likely not this year.

It's early, but M's fans should cheer.  Dustin Ackley has been everything they'd hoped he would be.

I'm of a somewhat different mind, one that Dave Cameron wrote of on USS Mariner a few days ago.  There are still a few holes on this that won't be filled this year or next year from the minors.  Chief among these is left field.  I've watched enough of the Carlos Peguero show.  I'm sorry, he's not ready and he doesn't belong in the bigs.  His at bats are painful to watch and I'm afraid he's going to kill Franklin Gutierrez out there. Carp is not really a left fielder, and Safeco's left field is just too big for a 1st baseman/DH type to cover.  Move Carp to DH where he belongs, let Jack Cust quietly go, and let Carp do what he is best suited for, swing the bat from the left side. Halman could be part of a left field platoon and is fine as a fill in guy.  The other glaring hole is at 3rd base.  There was a great article by Jon Shields of ProBall NW on the likelihood that Alex Liddi is the M's answer at 3b.  The opinion of experts, while mixed, is-certainly not now if ever. While I think everyone is rooting for the young Italian born player, he still has learning to do at the plate and in the field, but he's still pretty young and probably another full season away from the majors. Adam Kennedy has had a super year, but can't play every day, which means two or three days a week of Chone Figgins.  He's struggling and it's clear the booing is getting to him.  Figgins is a utility player right now and nothing more.  A third base replacement is ideal, particularly someone who is right handed on this very left-handed team.

Ryan Ludwick is likely to be dealt from the Padres by the trade deadline?  Could he be a fit for the Mariners in left field?

Left field and third base are positions in which the M's could probably look for some help--not necessarily a big bat, just a league average bat that will help them get better and closer to those four runs per game. Cameron suggested the Padres' Ryan Ludwick, David DeJesus and other who might keep the position warm while others develop, but also have a useful bat that will improve the Mariners' offense.  Will these changes make the Mariners division winners?  Doubtful, but it might keep them from falling off the edge of the world

Spring Training: What Does it All Mean?

200 hits and another losing season.  Mark it down in your book Ichiro.

 We're nearing the last week of spring training, and Mariners continue to have plenty of unanswered questions.  Can Justin Smoak hit in the middle of lineup and be a consistent run producer is probably the biggest?  Only slightly less important is whether Milton Bradley's bat can return to form, and can he stay healthy enough to play left field?  The infield situation seems to sorting itself out with Jack Wilson's move to second with Brendan Ryan at short, and Adam Kennedy on the bench.  Things get messy when Dustin Ackley is called up and Wilson seems to be the man without a position. 

Dustin Ackley is coming to Seattle.  We just don't know when, or how it will shake up the current interesting infield situation.

Catcher was looking sloppy with Miguel Olivo's groin injury.  Adam Moore and Josh Bard were not exactly floating my boat despite Moore's good spring at the plate.  Olivo and Moore is somewhat better but not exactly enough to set the world on fire.  Nevertheless, it has to be better than last year's triumvirate of Rob Johnson, Moore and Bard which not only didn't set the world on fire, but gave off the light and heat of a neutron star. Catching is better than it was last year, but it wouldn't take much.

Jack Cust leads the team in spring home runs and avoids any entries in the Slip and Fall to Hurt Your Back Olympics.  I always liked Russell Branyan.  Thought he was a good guy and believed his homers were so long and tall they were art.  I also believed he was one twitch away from season ending back surgery.  I wish him the best, but I think the Cust signing will give the M's the kind of consistency they need.  You know what I'm talking about--when Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy or Ryan Langerhans are forced to DH for a week. Cust will homer, walk and strikeout, keep the clubhouse loose, stay healthy and improve the position over the past three years or so.  Just not by a lot.

See that glove on Jack Cust's left hand.  Kiss it good bye.  You will know disaster has struck if you see Cust in the field.

Hitting on this team is going to be bad, as in not strike fear in the heart of your opponent bad.  As in not strike fear in your son's little league team bad. But they aren't going to be as bad as last year. They lack a real number four hitter and they are depending on folks who had poor seasons to do better, especially before Gutierrez is healthy and Ackley is on the field. Bradley, Smoak, Saunders, Olivo and Figgins are all question marks in my view.  If they all hit poorly, it's another 100 losses.  If they all hit to their historical averages and Smoak improves to say .260/.350/.460 the M's could be a .500 team and compete for third in the AL West. I'm talking incremental improvement here.  

If Smoak can relax and just hit, the M's could have a good season.  If his development is slow they'll struggle.

I like the starting rotation.  The big positive surprise of spring was the health of Eric Bedard.  If he can stay healthy, and Michael Pineda develops as a big league starter that's a huge bonus to combine with Vargas and Fister and of course Felix.  Was moving Pineda into the five spot the right move?  Compared with the alternatives, French and Pauley, absolutely.  It does shove Fister up a notch, and I do think he's more of a five than a four, but we'll see.  The M's may not have as deep a rotation as the A's, but I do think it's all around decent.

Like Smoak, Michael Pineda is a question mark.  The M's are asking him to develop at the major league level.

The bullpen, sans Aardsma and Shawn Kelly is a question mark.  I'm not a big Brandon League fan.  I think he's one of those physically talented guys without the makeup to win with the game on the line.  I'm afraid the M's will struggle depending on League to close and the Chris Ray, Josh Lueke, Jamey Wright trifecta who will set up.  Wilhelmsen making the team is a great story.  Let's just hope Cinderella can keep the glass slipper.

Bedard and Wilhelmsen are the big surprises of spring training, and if both can stay healthy they'll help the Mariners.  The most fun story of the spring however is that the Mariners have indeed won something:  the Carlos Silva/Milton Bradley bad contract series.  Thus far MB has almost been a choir boy with his attitude off the field and performance on the field.  Silva waddled into camp out of shape and pitched terrible ball, convinced the 5th starter's job with the Cubs was his.  It wasn't.  I hate to chortle and be spiteful, but I endured two years of overpriced, crappy Silva outings and it's nice to see some other team see his true character.

My prediction for the AL West--A's, Rangers, Angels, M's.  I have the M's pegged at 72 wins.  That said, I'm excited for the season to start in Seattle, and I think Tacoma should be pretty fun to watch too.

Custy and Olivo

It's Thursday and the baseball's winter meetings are over and Jack Zdurencik finds himself on the way home with a pair of free agents in hand.  Lefty Jack Cust signed on as DH for 2011, and word is that catcher Miguel Olivo signed a two year with the M's .  While neither of these are signings I am wild about, they will improve the Mariners in the short term.

It seems to me the Mariners GM had one important task in the off-season:  jolt offensive production. 
Jack Cust is a younger version of Russell Branyan, without the funny thing on his right hand--a glove.  Cust is characterized as an all or nothing hitter.  Low average, home runs, lots of walks and lots of strikeouts. On the other hand, his numbers have declined steadily since being traded to the Athletics from the Padres.  That was a watershed year when his numbers were .254/.408/.504.  According to Bill James, Cust suffers from having "Old People Skills" that diminish more rapidly than the normal decline curve.   With power to both left and right field power alleys, some of those shots that fly, fly away at McAfee Park may be hauled in as outs or go for doubles.The two scatter charts borrowed from Hit Tracker show clearly that Cust's power is bipolar, while Branyan's homers are more to right and longer.

Scatter Chart for Russell Branyan's home runs in 2010. 

Scatter Chart for Scatter Chart for Jack Cust's 2010 home runs

Still, don't want to rain on anyone's parade here.  Cust's acquisition clearly upgrades the DH position.  His line last year was .272/.395/.438 in 349 at bats.  According to Cust he was platooned, hitting against right handers, and had the fewest at bats since joining the A's in 2007. According to Jack, this reduced his effectiveness as he usually faced lefty specialists late in games.  Cust has never been on the DL, which makes him an instant upgrade over Russell Branyan with his balky back.  His 2010 line is a clear upgrade over Ken Griffey, Jr., Milton Bradley, Russell Branyan and the cast of thousands who seem to have filled that spot last year.  If Zdurencik's job was to upgrade the offensive over last year's execrable model, a one year deal with Cust should help.

I've already written about the catching black hole for the Mariners, but I was shocked when the GM ran out and dropped a $7 million deal on Miguel Olivo.  You may remember Olivo, he was the incredibly uncomfortable looking young man that came to the M's with Jeremy Reed, and Michael Morse in the Freddy Garcia trade in 2004.  He caught 104 torturous games for the M's before being shipped off the next year to the Padres for a few bags of field chalk, a case of scalp oil for Bill Bavasi, and spare parts for Ichiro's pitching machine.  The verdict on Olivo was he was a poor handler of pitchers, a dreadful hitter and a passed ball machine.
 
Times change, and as Olivo has developed he's definitely a different player.  In most ways that's good.  He's shown himself to be a much better hitter than he was with the 2004 M's, with a .269/.315/.449 line last year with the Rockies.  He's shown he has some pop in his bat, hitting  at least 12 home runs in each of the last five seasons, including 23 homers with the Royals in 2009.  The latter is significant as the K like Safeco is not a hitters park.  While Olivo led the planet in passed balls with 10, it's still six less than the combined total  for Adam Moore and Rob Johnson.  Even with that, Olivo led all catchers in the major league in defense, according to the Dewan Rating System with a value of 14.  His rSB rating against base stealers also leads the majors with 11, so the M's are getting a fine defender.

Olivo does bring some questions.  Olivo has never been a patient hitter.  His .315 on base average was the best of his career.  Hopefully this shows some maturity and growing patience at the plate.  He's also a right hander pull hitter coming to the graveyard of right handed pull hitters and the scatter chart shows this tendency.  As many other writers have already indicated, this looks like the second coming of Jose Lopez.  Hopefully Olivo recognizes this approach will not work at home, but I'm not holding my breath.

Miguel Olivo, good or bad?  I admit I hated this signing when I first heard it.  I had several reasons, the first being that I remembered his first sojourn in Seattle and Miguel's ability to do much of anything well.  But, that's not fair.  In fact the M's are getting a very good defensive catcher, passed balls notwithstanding.  Pitch calling ability is not clear and that was a rap on him in 2004-5.  There's no question this provides an offensive boost to the catching spot.  I'm not fooling myself, Olivo isn't Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez, but production from the catching position was so poor in 2009, that this upgrade simply adds one more weapon, however limited, to improve the Mariner offense.  If I have one qualm it is about the development of Adam Moore and whether this holds him back.  At least Olivo's deal is only two years and does not involve Bavasi-like money.  Moore's response to the signing was encouraging, telling the News Tribune's Ryan Divish that based on last-year's performance by the catchers this signing wasn't a surprise  

“It’s not going to change anything for me,” Moore said. “I’m going to continue to work hard to earn that job in spring training. It’s not going to change my mindset.”

I'll close with comments made by Jack Zdurencik to Brock and Salk  on December 8th, the M's GM voiced his unhappiness and frustration with the slow development of young Mariners prospects.  The Olivo signing is simply a message to Moore and others that the clock is ticking on their major league careers and if they don't give maximum effort, if development does not come with their time of service, the Mariners won't sit idly by and guarantee their place on the team.

 

Jack, If I Could Have Just One Wish

Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times has an interesting interview with Chuck Armstrong regarding some of the extravagant salaries paid to recent free agent signings.  Armstrong specifically referred to Jason Werth's seven year $126 million deal with the Nationals.

Not going to happen happen for the M's.  They already have too much money out on bets, some of which didn't work out well.  They're still choking on the four year $48 million deal Bill Bavasi signed with Carlos Silva, ahem, complicated by extra goodies included in the subsequent trade for Milton Bradley.  There are still $5 million out on the Jack Wilson signing, he of the perpetually injured hamstrings.  Bad deals, lots of money that will never be recouped on value.

If I could make one wish, it is that we spend the dough for a legit run producer at DH.  While I've seen Bradley penciled in here, I just lack faith the man will get the job done.  We're two years removed from his amazing year in Texas when he led the league in OPS.  2009 was bad and 2010 was atrocious.  Bradley is rarely able to play more than 120 games, and then what.  We're looking at Matt Tuiasosopo as DH, and no offense intended to Matt, but he's not an answer. 

The DH spot should be a spot for legitimate run producers.  Guys who can get on base, hit for a decent average with at least good gap power.  No defensive acumen is required, though if your designated hitter can play a position without untterly butchering it that's a bonus.  Speed is nice too, but that would be like hoping for a pony and a new iPad on your birthday, perhaps a little much. 

I'm not suggesting a respectable DH will land the Mariners in the division race, much less the World Series.  However, a run-producer at the position will help this team win.  If Eric Bedard is healthy, if Michael Pineda pitches as advertised, the Mariners rotation shapes up to be above average-enough to keep them in games, enough to keep fan interest.  But if the M's run out an offense that again scores as historically few runs as they did last year their fan will continue to shrink like the glaciers on Mount Rainier.

That said, I see Jack Cust may be near signing with the M's.  Good move, bad move? I'm not a big Cust fan because I don't think he represents what I like as a baseball player.  On the other hand, I think he's a prototypical DH.  Can't play the field at all, but he is someone who gets on base and can hit the ball a long way.  If he doesn't do those things, he strikes out a lot.  He's healthier than Russell Branyan and slower than molasses in January.  Not my first choice, but he'll make the M's better.

What to do about catching. Where have you gone Dan Wilson?

Dan Wilson remains the best catcher in Mariner history

Dan Wilson retired from the Seattle Mariners in 2005.  He caught 1,237 games  over his 13 year career.  Wilson wasn’t blessed with Ivan Rodriguez’s arm or Johnny Bench’s bat.  He wasn’t a big guy-tall at 6’3”, but only 190 lbs., 15 pounds lighter than Rodriquez and 20 pounds lighter than Lance Parrish, but he was a great defensive catcher, blocking the plate and lassoing balls in the dirt with the best in the game. In his 14 seasons with Seattle, he allowed 42 total past balls. To compare, Johnny Bench, a Hall of Fame catcher, caught about 500 more games, and allowed 94.  Perhaps Wilson’s greatest talent was his ability to work with pitchers and stay on the same page with them.  He called a great game. Though Wilson was not a great bat, he hit enough to keep himself in the lineup, and surrounded by great hitters for much of his career-Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey,Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner and a swarm of somewhat less talented power bats, Wilson’s other strengths were much more important.

Wilson, second from left with teammates Jay Buhner, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Ken Griffey,Jr in 2010

Ben Davis

Miguel Olivo

Pat Borders

Rene Rivera

Yorvit Torrealba

Wiki Gonzalez

Miguel Ojeda

Kenji Johjima

Jamie Burke

Rob Johnson

Guillermo Quiroz

Adam Moore

Josh Bard

Eliezer Alfonso

The foregoing is list of the catchers who have filled in for or tried to replace Wilson since the 2002 season.  Each of them is eminently forgettable.   With the possible exception of Johjima, none showed the consistency, leadership, defensive prowess, or bat needed to win the position and keep it over the long haul. 

Last year the Mariners started the season with Rob Johnson and Adam Moore on their major league rosters.  Both had fine minor league careers.  Johnson hit .300 his last full year in the minors,  and showed a little power and speed.  Unfortunately , a series of injuries rendered Johnson unable to sufficiently block balls in the dirt, and off-season surgery after the 2009 season didn’t helpt.    Though Johnson was praised by pitchers, his .191/.293/.282 and nine passed balls in 60 games resulted in a return to Tacoma

Right behind him was the highly regarded Moore, a big guy with a big bat. .  Moore was hurt off and on and played only 61 games.  His numbers .193/.232/.294 and seven passed balls wasn’t an improvement.  Josh Bard actually turned in the most serviceable numbers, but he was injured mid season and played in only 39 games.  Bard is not on the M’s 40 man roster. 

Adam Moore swinging the bat well in Spring Training 2010.

I am an Adam Moore fan.  I believe he has the tools to be a major league catcher, but at age 26 this is the year when he’ll have to show enough development to make the job his.  This is also the year when the Mariners need to provide Moore with veteran help through trade or free agency. 

The list of available catchers is not formidable.  They are veterans, some of whom have had nice seasons, but not anybody who is going to light your fire.  Those catchers are already gone-Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, John Buck to name a few.  Not only are the best, those who can hit as well as catch gone, but it’s clear the M’s want somebody who is cheap.  That’s great, because virtually all the catchers available are over 30, and are likely back-up material.

Gerald Laird was terrible with the bat last year.  He posted .207/.263/.304 in 299 at bats.  This is well below his career average of .242/.300/.358.  It’s also below his last couple of years with Texas and Detroit. On the other hand, Laird’s defense has been quite good. According to Kurt Mensching on SB Nation, Laird should have been considered for a Gold Glove for his defense, and might have if not for that Mauer guy.  Laird, 31,  made $3.95 million in 2010.  Detroit cut him loose when they signed Victor Martinez. The Mariners could probably get him for a lot less

At 36, Bengie Molina says he’s good for one more year.  That he showed some real leadership with the Giants last year is probably enough to put the Mariners out of the running for his services.  Nevertheless, he would be a great mentor for Moore.  Molina made $4.5 million in 2010 and probably too pricey for the pinched M’s.

Last, but not a terrible option, is to bring back Josh Bard.  He performed creditably behind the plate and his line of .214/276/.347 was better than Johnson or Moore.  Signed to a minor league contract last year, his services would likely be very cheap.  Maybe not a flashy choice, but better than being forced into the duo of Moore and Johnson. 

There are other catchers who might be better.  A.J. Pierzynski has always been a good catcher with a good, left-handed bat.  But his nettlesome disposition would not fit in well with a young team trying to build chemistry.  Miguel Olivo has a good bat, probably most power among those catchers left, but he’s a lousy defensive catcher and is not known for his work with pitchers.  Both are also Type B free agents and would require compensation.  

While we may recall fondly the days of Dan Wilson corralling Jamie Moyer's circle change in the dirt, or climbing the ladder to grab Randy Johnson's heater, those days are gone forever.  Adam Moore must step up to be the man, and the M's need to find him a little bit of help.