The M's: what to do now?

In the blogosphere, on sports talk radio today there is endless discussion of what the M's should do now.  Their pitching continues to be impressive, the starters especially, but really all around. The hitting continues to be bad.  Not just bad, ridiculously sucky.  How sucky?  Geoff Baker noted the M's have scored 11 runs in their last six games, exactly the number of goals the Sounders have scored in their last six games. When everyone talks about the Mariners' record when they score four or more runs versus their record when they score fewer than four runs, I often feel like we just well may be talking about the likelihood of exploring for fossil fuels in Alpha Centauri.  It isn't happening this year.

It really settles out to two positions.  One is that the M's are trying out the kids.  Even with the trading deadline coming up, and availability of a bat or two being likely being available for a price either in increased salary or for a prospect or two.  The thinking being that the M's could make that four run per game threshold for a price in salary and/or players.  Who is available?  That's not so clear.  Would the M's make a move?  That's become a lot more muddled the past twenty four hours.  Shannon Drayer reported in her blog M's confirmed they are unlikely to spend more money.  With Erik Bedard having a fabulous year, his one year $1 million dollar salary is laden with incentives that will likely cost ownership in the range of $7 million.  Baker takes ownership to task, failing to support a historically superior pitching staff with even the effort to acquire adequate hitting talent.  The division is weak, the pitching is good, and with even a modest increase in run scoring ability, this team could win the division, and in a down year for offense, could ride its pitching a long way in the playoffs.

Erik Bedard's success on the mound has dampened owners' enthusiasm for as they watch his contracted incentive clauses pile up.  The M's owe Bedard another $6 million this year.  Pay the man; he's earned it.

The flip side of this argument was voiced by KJR's Dave Groszby on Bob and Groz today.  The kids are doing better than anyone thought they could.  Let them play and find out what we have.  Unlike past Mariners "rebuilding" efforts, the M's really have tried to build around kids up from the minor leagues. Justin Smoak has performed adequately in his first full year in the majors and given us a look at his potential, but he still is not the consistent hitter we hope he'll become.  Dustin Ackley, in his nine games has looked like the diamond we hoped he'd be-a solid hitter with speed, and not the defensive liability many feared. Michael Pineda performs like the big man he is, challenging Bedard and  Felix Hernandez for the best pitching performance of the year. Mike Carp, Greg Halman, and Carlos Peguero look like, well, rookies.  Eric Wedge says they're learning and making adjustments.  Each has made sporadic contributions to the team.  Do they have enough talent to stick? Those in this camp say we won't know unless they play regularly.  Don't deal them or other gems in the minors.  They offer the real road to success, but likely not this year.

It's early, but M's fans should cheer.  Dustin Ackley has been everything they'd hoped he would be.

I'm of a somewhat different mind, one that Dave Cameron wrote of on USS Mariner a few days ago.  There are still a few holes on this that won't be filled this year or next year from the minors.  Chief among these is left field.  I've watched enough of the Carlos Peguero show.  I'm sorry, he's not ready and he doesn't belong in the bigs.  His at bats are painful to watch and I'm afraid he's going to kill Franklin Gutierrez out there. Carp is not really a left fielder, and Safeco's left field is just too big for a 1st baseman/DH type to cover.  Move Carp to DH where he belongs, let Jack Cust quietly go, and let Carp do what he is best suited for, swing the bat from the left side. Halman could be part of a left field platoon and is fine as a fill in guy.  The other glaring hole is at 3rd base.  There was a great article by Jon Shields of ProBall NW on the likelihood that Alex Liddi is the M's answer at 3b.  The opinion of experts, while mixed, is-certainly not now if ever. While I think everyone is rooting for the young Italian born player, he still has learning to do at the plate and in the field, but he's still pretty young and probably another full season away from the majors. Adam Kennedy has had a super year, but can't play every day, which means two or three days a week of Chone Figgins.  He's struggling and it's clear the booing is getting to him.  Figgins is a utility player right now and nothing more.  A third base replacement is ideal, particularly someone who is right handed on this very left-handed team.

Ryan Ludwick is likely to be dealt from the Padres by the trade deadline?  Could he be a fit for the Mariners in left field?

Left field and third base are positions in which the M's could probably look for some help--not necessarily a big bat, just a league average bat that will help them get better and closer to those four runs per game. Cameron suggested the Padres' Ryan Ludwick, David DeJesus and other who might keep the position warm while others develop, but also have a useful bat that will improve the Mariners' offense.  Will these changes make the Mariners division winners?  Doubtful, but it might keep them from falling off the edge of the world

Book Review: Game Six: Cincinnati, Boston and the 1975 World Series by Mark Frost

I remember Game Six well.  I'd left school at San Francisco State in October of 1975, and driven to Vashon Island where my parents were living with my grandparents.  It had been a tumultuous year.  My parents left our transplanted home in the Bay Area for the more familiar territory of Puget Sound.  My sister got married.  I stayed with a family near our Belmont, CA home waiting to move into my college dorm.  My long time relationship with my high school sweetheart broke up.  I was not ready to be on my own, but the show, as they say, must go on.  And it went badly.  By the middle of October I was miserable and sought some comfort in my family 900 miles from school. October 21, 1975 found me watching the World Series with my Dad on the couch in my grandparents' living room.  When Carlton Fisk hit his home run to win it in the 12th inning it was a magical moment in one of the more magical places of all time.

Mark Frost's examination of the sixth game is like a roller coaster ride that goes on a bit too long in a pouring rainstorm.  There are moments of sheer pleasure, enough so you don't mind the wet. But when the ride gets stuck in the rain it's just too much.

Frost approaches the sixth game for what it was-one of the best World Series games of all time, and he does it pitch by pitch, inning by inning.  He does a great job of providing context for the game within the '75 World Series itself, as well as within the season.  He gives dimension to the players too.  I learned so much about Sparky Anderson, Carlton Fisk, and Bernie Carbo I didn't know.  Nowhere does he do a better job of filling out our portrait of that game than his pictures of Luis Tiant and Tony Perez and their struggles to come to America from Cuba.  His view of Tiant, his recovery from serious injury and efforts to spring his parents from Castro's Cuba is excellent.  Frost's effort to provide highlights and shadows are best, however, as they tie more directly to his narrative of the game itself.  The excitement of the Red Sox's early lead is palpable.  The disillusionment that followed the Reds outburst that tied the game and eventually took the lead shows Sparky pulling all the right levers, while Darrel Johnson seems incapable or unwilling to save the sinking Sox. Carbo's home run and Fisk's game winner are all there in living color.

Is there any more iconic image in our baseball memories than Fisk willing his 12th inning blast over the Green Monster fair?  I think not.  I liked the Red Sox in those days before they became victimized, entitled whiners.

The book goes terribly awry in some spots, however.  Let me first say, that as a history person, I truly appreciate context to fill in the story, but this is ridiculous.  Frost begins by trying to share the origins of the American League and the thus the Red Sox, but that really doesn't take us very far in understanding the '75 Series.  He's a little more successful in explaining owner Tom Yawkey's origins, but mostly these loose ends are just that, loose ends.  When the story of the sixth game is over, Frost justly explains the outcome of the deciding game in Boston, but then he takes off on a discussion of free agency and the decline of both franchises.  I think this remains outside the focus of this book.  Frost really goes off the deep end when he begins to argue for the enshrinement of members of both teams in the Baseball Hall of Fame, rather than simply telling their stories after their lives in baseball, which he does quite well.

Game Six has lots of great moments, and I truly wish Frost had allowed the book to stand on the story of that season, that game, those players, rather than leading us by the nose to places that, frankly, we didn't need to go.  Reading on my Kindle, I found myself thinking, "Really, you're going here?" and then advancing ahead, looking at my watch and reaching for the light. When Game Six is good, it's very good, but when it's bad it's irrelevant.

Miguel Olivo and family farewells

Well, Miguel Olivo did it again last night.  A solo homer to give Jason Vargas an insurance run in the eighth, and when that didn't quite work out, a two run double in the 10th to give the M's the win, 7-4.  I was an unenthusiastic supporter of Olivo's signing this winter.  I saw a catcher who was an upgrade, but only a modest one, over our corps from hell last year, and who potentially was blocking the development of Adam Moore. Hoo boy, I was wrong, and I admit it.

Miguel Olivo's thousand watt smile is just one reason to like what he's done for the Mariners.

Right this moment Olivo is carrying this team.  Geoff Baker had a great blog post about Olivo's contributions this morning.  While his numbers won't jump off the charts at you at .246/.298/412 they continue to rise.  And the guy has just been clutch.  The homers and RBI doubles have come when we needed them, not in the middle of some rout or off some late-inning mop up guys.  His extra base hits last night both put the Mariners ahead, and he's been like that ever since his bat awakened from a long frozen slumber in Detroit on April 26th.

All is not perfect.  While Olivo is in the top five for most defensive ratings, he leads catchers in errors with four, and is second in passed balls with five.  Miggy was a passed ball producing machine last year, and he's on track for more than his ten of 2010. Even so, it's clear Mariners pitchers like throwing to him, and that's huge.  It must account for some of their success. 

Last, but not least, I have no way to back this up, but I believe Olivo is a team chemistry guy.  Again, I point to the pitching staff.  Yes, Felix is great, but how much confidence does Miguel give to young guys like Pineda?  Does Olivo give the amazing Eric Bedard the confidence to use his changeup more and have success, despite the slight loss of speed off his fastball?  How much is he responsible for the continued improvement by Vargas and Fister?  The man is always smiling.  And it's an amazing, electric smile.  He loves to play the game, he loves to win, and he loves to be a Mariner.  He's my kind of guy.

*      *       *       *     *     *
This week our baseball family lost two wonderful ballplayers.  Jose Pagan died on June 7th from complications from Alzheimer's disease.  He was 76.  Born in Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, Pagan broke in with the San Francisco Giants in 1959.  Primarily an infielder, and chiefly playing 3rd base and shortstop, Pagan was one of those nifty glove guys.   He was a useful bat, and could do the little things, bunt and hit and run.  Pagan had one of his better years with the Giants in their pennant year of 1962.  He was traded in '65 to the Pirates, where he may be better remembered as a contributor to the Clemente-led world championship.  Pagan finished his career with the Phillies in 1973.  Pagan died in Seabring, Florida.

Jim Northrop's two run triple off Bob Gibson (!!!) beats the beloved Cardinals in the 1968 World Series.  I've never forgiven him.

Jose Pagan was a handy utility infielder by the time he was willing silly Pirates hats on the 1972 World Championship team.

Jim Northrup died June 8th at the age of 71.  He'd been ill for a number of years and his passing was not unexpected.  Northrup came up with the Detroit Tigers in 1964 and played in the outfield with Al Kaline.  Known as a no-nonsense guy, Northrup became a leader on the 1968 world -champions.  I've never forgiven him for his game winning triple off Bob Gibson to win the 7th game.  When manager Mayo Smith was gone after the '72 season, Northrup could not abide the managerial style of Billy Martin and got himself traded, first to the Expos and then Baltimore where he finished his career in 1975.  From 1966-1973 Northrup was very good.

Baseball and deaths in the family

Baseball has its history and its family secrets.  That's what makes it such a special game and sets it apart from every other sport.  We've paid an increasing amount of attention to the NFL, which at least goes back to before World War II, but basketball is still in its infancy, historically speaking, and hockey is trying to get an American audience to pay attention.

When you have a big family, with members that are aging, it's inevitable there will be surprises, tragedies, and death.  Last week Harmon Killebrew, the great slugging third baseman of the Minnesota Twins died.  There was no fan of the game that missed Killebrew's passing.  He was a Twins hero who could hit the ball a mile, a hall of famer, a former MVP.  Every baseball fan knows him, few Twins fans emerged from hearing the news dry-eyed. 

He didn't have a flaming fastball, or a searing slider, or even a sneaky curve, but for 15 years Paul Splittorff was a good pitcher for the Kansas City Royals.

Today the news of Paul Splittorff's death came across the wire.  Splittorff was not a Hall of Famer, but he was a very good pitcher for 15 years with the Kansas City Royals.  His record was 166-143 with a 3.81 ERA.  His years with the team included some of the most memorable competition with the Yankees in the playoffs in the 70's and early 80's. They were good teams with good players:  George Brett, Willie Wilson, Amos Otis, Frank White, John Mayberry.  His stablemates were good too-Dennis Leonard, Larry Gura, Steve Busby, and the always amusing Dan Quisenberry, were a good staff.  His death, at age 64, of complications from melanoma, is shocking, and that his passing was so private contributed to my surprise when I heard the news.

I had hoped to remember players like Splittorff, as well as Killebrew on this blog, but I've done a crappy job.  I plan to do better,

My name is Jack and I hit homers

sI just couldn't help myself.  Jack Cust homered in the first inning of the Mariners game in Minneapolis.  You go Jack. Hopefully Cust's second homer will come a little more quickly than his first.

Go git 'em Jack

Whither now Seattle Mariners?

The beloved M's are in San Diego, having won five straight and six of their last seven. The AL West Division is thin, and the home team have deposed the A's from third place. They are cellar dwellers no longer.  Despite their 22-24 record the Mariners are only 1.5 games behind the division-leading Rangers.  It's nearly Memorial Day, and by all accounts the boys in blue and silver were expected to be irrelevant.

The King.  Felix Hernandez left thirteen strikeout victims in his wake at Petco Park Sunday.

This is not a pretty team, at times.  They are bi-polar.  Their offense is vile. Crap.  Bad, with a capital bad.  In runs scored they rank 28th, and batting average, 29th, next to last, in the majors.  For the past two years, they've raised frustratingly stranding runners on base to an art form.  They are so bad at failing to score or advance runners with consistency, their un-funny follies should simply be termed "Marinersesque."  For example:

It's the third inning of the 2012 World Series, the Phillies lead the Yankees three games to none.  In a 0-0 ballgame, Jeter leads off with a walk and Robinson Cano, trying to hit the ball to right side and advance the runner, taps a soft liner back to Doc Halliday, who doubles Jeter off first.

Joe Buck:  Gee Tim, that was just poor execution.  When your team is struggling, you have to be able to execute and do the little things to help them score.

Tim McCarver:  Yeah Joe, you got that one right.  Playoff baseball is about execution and if you're going to beat Halliday and stay in this thing you've got to execute.That was just Marinersesque.

It's been nearly two weeks since the Mariners made Milton Bradley take his act on the stage, the first one out of town and called up Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson.  Both are struggling to produce consistently, as one would expect of untried rookies.  Yet there's no denying, they both bring an athleticism and energy to the team that was lacking before.  Peguero homered twice in the last home stand and has looked both tremendous and clumsy in left field.  Friday's play at the wall to rob Jorge Cantu of a homer and throw to Brendan Ryan in time to relay to first base to double off Ryan Ludwick was a thing of beauty.  At other times, Peguero has been just short of making the great plays.  The dropped ball in the ninth inning of the same game is an example.  Wilson, trapped as the right hander in a platoon, hasn't had the chance to play much yet.  But Saturday's gapper was a game breaker and insured the demise of the even weaker hitting Padres.  It's unclear exactly how much these two young players will contribute to the offensive improvement of this team.  Just too small a sample size.

Michael Pineda leads the team with six wins and is only going to get better.  He's a hard worker and studies the game carefully-oh and he throws 97 mph with control.

Eric Bedard is my favorite story of the spring.  Opposing batters don't care for him quite so much.  Ask the nine Padres he struck out on Friday.

 The pitching, on the other hand, has simply been beyond expectations.  Win or lose, all five starters, Felix, Pineda, Bedard, Vargas and Fister, are giving the Mariners seven plus innings per start.  They put the team in a position to win.  In their last four games, the Mariners have allowed one earned run.  The pitching staff is ranked 5th in ERA and WHIP, and will only climb as numbers improve daily. The bullpen, except for the notorious four day run a week ago, when Brandon League repeatedly melted down in save situations, has been better than believed before the season began.  League, David Pauley, Jamie Wright, and Aaron Laffey have simply been very good.  The starters and big four bullpen staff have been so good that Jeff Gray, acquired a couple weeks ago on a waiver wire deal, hasn't pitched since he came over to the boys from Royal Brougham. The Mariners have a playoff caliber pitching staff that could take the team deep into the playoffs . . . if they only could score enough runs.

Despite his opening night meltdown, Jason Vargas has been a steady starter for the Mariners. 

Mr. Fister.  When he's on, he's very good.

So where does this leave the M's going forward.  This team was assembled as a rebuilding team.  I predicted it would win only 70-75 games.  We are just past the quarter pole and headed for the first third of the season at 54 games.  The Rangers suffered key injuries to their big run producers and closer and have not run away with the division flag.  The Angels are showing the weaknesses I believed they'd have.  Oakland, like Seattle, is run challenged, and two of their pitchers just went on the disabled list.  All four teams are within two games of each other but it's still early in the season.

Dustin Ackley is the heir apparent to the starting second base job; it's just a matter of time. He may be a very good hitter, but he isn't a savior.  The M's need at least one more bat.

There is a lot of comment on the blogs urging the Mariners to go for it and acquire the bats needed to win consistently.  At some point Dustin Ackley will come up and, hopefully, contribute to the Mariners' struggling offense. How quickly he will adjust to major league pitching is an open question.  Assuming he can make even modest progress as a major league hitter, he will be an upgrade over Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy, and should take over the number two slot.  I was able to catch the Rainiers game yesterday and watched the young man play in the field.  He turned a couple of double plays, and hit an absolute laser over the right field fence for a game winning home run.  He will be ready soon, and will make a difference.

What about another bat?  A consistent uprgrade at left field, third base, or designated hitter are all possibilities in my mind. It's still early, but if the left field situation is unsettled, if Figgins and Cust continue to struggle, and the M's are close to the division lead, or (silly me) leading the division at the end of June, Jack Z must pull the trigger on a deal that will improve the Mariner offense.  The M's have a waning fan base, but during these little winning streaks, when the pitching is so dominant, maybe the best there is in the game right at this moment, there is a spark and every long suffering Mariners fan, waiting for a sniff of redemption believes, that with just a little help, we could win it all. Okay, our division.  We can smell it Jack, get us a bat dammit.

Shootout on Edgar Martinez Way

Endured a sad weekend of Mariner baseball.  The White Sox are horrible, they've proved it to all of baseball for over a month, and the M's managed to lose two of three at home.  Mostly no hitting and sloppy play led to their demise.

The sad part is they steamed into Safeco on Tuesday the 3rd and dispatched a faltering Texas Ranger team in two of three games, were competetive in Pineda's Wednesday start.  They won the same way they'd beat up Boston and Detroit in the week prior by putting runners on base, tough pitching and good play in the field.  Chicago comes to town, and it's like we're in Kansas City again, with Wedge getting ready to let everyobdy have it.

The news out of Mariners HQ is not happy news.  Bradley and Langerhans have both been DFA'ed.  Zdurencik said there would be accountability this year and I guess this is a start.  Milton Bradley has not fulfilled our pipe dreams after the Carlos Silva trade last year that he could be an effective hitter for the M's. His recent onfield explosion and lazy play in left field left little doubt among fans he should go.  Both Ryan Divish in the News Tribune and Geoff Baker in the Seattle Times strenuously opined in their respective blogs that Bradley's time was up and should go before the official team announcement was made.

Moving Langerhans was more problematic, but the lefty journeyman couldn't adequately cover centerfield, and wasn't hittin' a lick. Too bad, I liked him in the three years he was here, but in the end you have to have talent. 

The M's called up Mike Wilson and Carlos Peguero to fill the roster spots of the dearly departed.  Peguero already had his cup of coffee during Justin Smoak's bereavement leave.  While he is big, strong and athletic, there is no reason to believe Peguero will rescue the Mariners from the black hole of hitting.  He may show very occasional power, but he will be strike out, hit for a poor average and show athleticism in the field.  He will be the left-handed bookend of the traditional vacant space in Safeco's left field.  Mike Wilson will be the right-handed bookend.  He's a somewhat less mobile version of Peguero, though with a slightly more refined approach to hitting-he'll also strike out a lot, maybe walk a little more, and hit an occasional boomer.  Not enough to scare anyone, however. It is said that Wilson is an athlete with a body like a Greek statue, and unfortunately he plays the field a lot like one.

I don't mean to be a pessimist.  I think the M's had few choices, and I think they've done what they can do to fill the wide open spaces in Safeco's spacious pasture.  It is what it is.  Those responsible have been carried from the field and it's time for new blood, because it can't be any worse.

Steroids in Baseball: The Gift that Keeps on Giving

First, a happy birthday to Edgar Martinez.  Edgar may be the greatest Mariner of them all.  He was a wonderful hitter, both in the comfy confines of the Kingdome, but also managed to find considerable success in the open prairie at Safeco Field.  His line drive in 1995 that drove home Ken Griffey, Jr. to win the ALDS arguably saved baseball in Seattle.  Edgar is the player who never left, who played until it was clear he no longer should, and leaves an unblemished baseball legacy to the team and the city.

The debate continues whether a player who was primarily a DH for his career is fit to grace the halls at Cooperstown.  Looking at the "counting numbers," hits and home runs, suggest to many he is not.  While I am sold on the more advanced stats, I am more easily persuaded by what I saw and what the numbers say.  This was Edgar's line  .312/.418/..515.  His career OPS+ was 147.  That's not as good as Albert Pujols or Frank Thomas.  But it is better than David Ortiz or Alex Rodriguez , and the same as Jim Thome.  It is better than Hall of Famers Bill Terry, Duke Snider, and Eddie Matthews, great players all. I'm hoping the HOF voters will continue to look a little deeper than just the counting stats and find Edgar  Hall of Fame worthy as Joe Posnanski did this week.

While the debate goes on about the Hall of Fame, who's in who's out, the steroids issue raises its head again.  I have a pretty simple position on the use of PED's.  If you tested positive, or if there is some other evidence you used, i.e., Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens, you're out, you're done you're history.  Even if you fessed up as Mark McGwire did last year, I'm sorry, I'm glad you came clean but I can't support you. 

There is an effort among some to diminish the impact of steroids on the game. Eric Walker's lengthy article in August about the limited impact, if any, by steroids on baseball simply did not change my mind.  However, as writers try to find a way to bring the "steroids era" into focus with the rest of baseball history, rationalizing the blip in statistics between 1994 and 2004, some writers will concede the era was rife with cheating and just move on.  Maybe I will get there too at some point, but I'm certainly not there yet.  The notion of Rafael Palmeiro waving his finger at Congressmen and claiming he has never taken performance enhancing drugs is just a bit too disgusting for me to overlook, and is emblematic of the era.  "I'm not cheating, and what if I am," is an attitude I just can't condone.  It's the rule follower in me. 

But my view is nothing new.  What disturbs me even more is the flip side of the issue as it is emerging in this Hall of Fame season.  As Jeff Bagwell appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot, alongside McGwire and Palmeiro, writers have implicated him as a steroid user as well.  There is no evidence that Bagwell used PED's.  His name doesn't appear in the Mitchell report.  No teammates have rushed forward to implicate him injecting himself or others with dianabol.  Yet in the eyes of Fan House's Dan Graziano, no evidence is fine. His suspicions are good enough.   For Jeff Pearlman, who does not vote, but is voice in the baseball community, it is enough that Bagwell played during the steroid era to bar his admission to the hall.  To proof, not a shred of evidence is necessary, you are damned by the era you played in and the players you played with. 

 While I am a baseball fan, I am a history person first and foremost.  These views are emblematic of the very worst episodes in American history.  They are reminiscent of the red scares after both world wars.  They remind me of the critics of the right that accused critics of the war in Iraq of treason.  No evidence, simply guilt by implication.   It is cultural witch-hunting and a blot on baseball journalism.  Show us the facts, isn't that what journalism is about?

Why Ichiro Can't Win

I saw my first major league baseball game in 1963.  We were visiting my grandparents in San Francisco and my Dad took me over to Candlestick to catch a game.  It was a day game and the weather was nice, not always a given at the 'Stick.  The Pirates were in town.  I don't remember tons about the game-the Giants won 3-1.  I remember a lot of the players that day.  Mays and McCovey were in the outfield.  Don't remember if Cepeda played, but Gaylord Perry pitched.  For the Bucs it was Clemente and Stargell in the outfield with Mazeroski at 2nd base.  Six hall of famers were on the field.  I wish I remembered more about the game.

Which brings us to Ichiro Suzuki.  Yesterday he was named The Most Dependable Player of the Year by the MLB network.  Why?  He played in all 162 games in 2010.  And those hits, all 214 of them, led the American league, as Ichiro has seven of the last ten years.   Despite his 37 years, Ichiro, who stays in remarkable shape, shows no signs of slowing down in his game, built largely on speed. He is one of the most fun players I've ever watched.  I've seen him hit a grand slam at Safeco to beat the hated Red Sox.  I've watched him make catches at the wall, over the wall, deep in the corner, and seen him gun down base runners going to third.  He's beaten teams with his glove, with his bat, with his arm, and with his legs.  He is one of the best in ways that don't show up in gaudy slugging percentages.

The magic year of 2009.  Ichiro with his friend and hero, Ken Griffey, Jr.

So why are Seattle fans, at least those who comment on blogs, those who seem to be most engaged in the Mariners' shrinking community of followers, so divided on the the question of Ichiro's value to the team.  Some simply call him a "slappy" hitter who contributes little to the success of the M's.  J.J. Putz implied after the disastrous 2008 season that his teammates viewed Ichiro as selfish, and suggested there were elements who wanted to do him physical harm.  Not all are haters, however.  One of my favorite writers, Joe Posnanski, penned a column for SI.com last May enumerating Ichiro's virtues and simply stated he was a one of a kind player.

Ichiro is a one of a kind player.  Unfortunately, he's the one of a kind player whose true value is lost on a team as terrible offensively as the current edition of the Seattle Mariners.  Look at Ichiro by the numbers.  From 2001-2003 the Mariners won 116, 93, and 93 games. Their offense included good hitters:  Brett Boone, John Olerud, Edgar Martinez, Mike Cameron, and even the long forgotten Randy Winn.  They all were above average in OPS +  and a few of them had monster OPS+ seasons of 140 or more. For those who don't know OPS+ is an offensive measure that takes ballpark and other factors into consideration.  An OPS+ of 100 is considered major league average.

Ichiro's lines in those years were:

2001     .350/.381/.457  56sb  127 runs   OPS +  126  6 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2002     .321/.388/.425  31sb  111 runs   OPS +  120  5 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2003     .312/.352/.436  36sb  111 runs   OPS +  112  6 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater

In those years it was not "The Seattle Mariners Offense, featuring Ichiro Suzuki."  Ichiro's job was to get on base, chreate chaos on the basepaths and score runs.  He was a very good leadoff hitter on a pretty decent team and he had a clear role. 

Nobody else can do this.  Out of the box before his swing is finished, Ichiro is the fastest player to 2,000 hits.

2004 is the year of the cataclysm.  Everything went wrong in the first year of Bill Bavasi's magic touch.  The pitching was terrible.   At bat, the Mariners were no better.  Nearly all the moves Bavasi made, Scott Spezio, Rich Aurilia, Hiram Bocachica, the Carlos Guillen trade, were failures.  Only the acquisition of Raul Ibanez worked out. It was the year of Bucky Jacobson, and the year the fine careers of Olerud, Martinez, and Boone quietly ended.

Ichiro, arguably had his best year.  It was the year of the hits record and his line looked like this:

 2004      .372/.414/.455  101 runs  OPS+ 130  2 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater*
* Bucky Jacobsen would count as a third in limited duty.

 That Ichiro scored 101 runs despite his very high OBP demonstrates how weak this team was. As Ichiro raced to catch George Sisler in the record books, it seemed the quest to fulfill that dream superseded his commitment to help the team win.  Bunts for base hits seemed more important than trying to drive in runs by hitting away.  The 99 losses sealed Bob Melvin's fate, and Ichiro 's accomplishment became The Season.

The years 2005-07 presented more failure.  The pitching was at best mediocre and the hitting was often not much better.  2007 seemed to be a year of improvement which proved chimerical, but the team improvement seemed to boost Ichiro's performance.

Ichiro's lines were:

2005      .303/.350/.436  33sb  111 runs 113 OPS+  4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2006      .322/.370/.416  44sb  110 runs 106 OPS+  4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2007      .351/.396/.431  37sb  111 runs 122 OPS+  5 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater

The better the supporting cast, the better Ichiro seems to do.  In this respect, 2004 seems to be an outlier.  His goal of getting 200 hits seems to focus Ichiro, but beyond that, when he has better hitters around him, he's able to accomplish more.  When the team wins more, Ichiro performs better.

Ichiro ranks 6th in outfield assists among active right fielders.

Based on 2007's promise, Bavasi pulled out the stops to win in 2008 and traded for Erik Bedard.  You know the story.  It's not bad enough that Bedard was injured, everyone else underperformed too.  The team lost 101 games, clubhouse chemistry was poisonous, and Ichiro performed well-below his career stats.

2008       .310/.361/.386  43sb  103 runs 102 OPS+  3 teammates with OPS+  100 or greater

2008 is Ichiro's worst statistical year.

2009 was Jack Zdurencik's first as general manager and he put together a team that struggled to score runs, but remained competitive until August.  Again, despite the lack of good hitting, Ichiro seemed to respond to the glorious clubhouse environment, playing with Ken Griffey, Jr., and winning.

 2009     .352/.386/.465  26sb  88 runs 129 OPS+ 4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or better.

 Though 2009 is Ichiro's best year since 2004, it doesn't hide the fact that most of his teammates hit well below league average.  His 88 runs was the first season he didn't score at least 100.  Pitching and defense can only count for so much and at some point you have to cross the pay station

 Which brings us to 2010.  Built on might have beens and wishful thinking, the team crashed on take-off, losing 101 games again.  This might be the most frustrating season in the team's history.  Hitting was bad and the Mariners scored the fewest runs in the major leagues since 1972.  Ichiro's year, complicated by the signing of Chone Figgin,s was a disappointment.  Batting second, Figgins's style was so like Ichiro's and got off to such a slow start that the grounders he once legged out for base hits became double plays, 20 of 'em.  By far the most of Figgins' career.  It was like matter and anti-matter batting one behind the other.

 2010      .315/.359/.394  42sb  74 runs  113 OPS+ 1 teammate with OPS+ 100 or better.
 The teammate was Russell Branyan and his 205 at bats.

 What is a leadoff hitter to do?  What did the other hitters look like?  Chone Figgins 84, Jose Lopez 73, Milton Bradley 80, Franklin Guttierez 87.  And those are the good ones.

 Ichiro Suzuki, together with Felix Hernandez, are the most recognizable names on the Mariners.  Just as Hernandez showed with his Cy Young Award it's possible to be a great pitcher without great run support, Ichiro is a great leadoff hitter, even without the hitters behind him.  Though some years he is greater than others, mostly that's a result of the number of league average hitters that can drive him home. It's unfair to hold him accountable for the failure of his teammates.  His $18 million contract makes him an easy target for the whiners who expect him to morph into Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton.  The M's didn't sign him to be either one of those. Unfortunately Ichiro was not made to be the straw that stirs the drink as Reggie Jackson once was.  Rather, he was intended to be the olive in the martini.  The more the burden of offense falls on Ichiro the less likely he can meet fan expectations. 

 Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com

Custy and Olivo

It's Thursday and the baseball's winter meetings are over and Jack Zdurencik finds himself on the way home with a pair of free agents in hand.  Lefty Jack Cust signed on as DH for 2011, and word is that catcher Miguel Olivo signed a two year with the M's .  While neither of these are signings I am wild about, they will improve the Mariners in the short term.

It seems to me the Mariners GM had one important task in the off-season:  jolt offensive production. 
Jack Cust is a younger version of Russell Branyan, without the funny thing on his right hand--a glove.  Cust is characterized as an all or nothing hitter.  Low average, home runs, lots of walks and lots of strikeouts. On the other hand, his numbers have declined steadily since being traded to the Athletics from the Padres.  That was a watershed year when his numbers were .254/.408/.504.  According to Bill James, Cust suffers from having "Old People Skills" that diminish more rapidly than the normal decline curve.   With power to both left and right field power alleys, some of those shots that fly, fly away at McAfee Park may be hauled in as outs or go for doubles.The two scatter charts borrowed from Hit Tracker show clearly that Cust's power is bipolar, while Branyan's homers are more to right and longer.

Scatter Chart for Russell Branyan's home runs in 2010. 

Scatter Chart for Scatter Chart for Jack Cust's 2010 home runs

Still, don't want to rain on anyone's parade here.  Cust's acquisition clearly upgrades the DH position.  His line last year was .272/.395/.438 in 349 at bats.  According to Cust he was platooned, hitting against right handers, and had the fewest at bats since joining the A's in 2007. According to Jack, this reduced his effectiveness as he usually faced lefty specialists late in games.  Cust has never been on the DL, which makes him an instant upgrade over Russell Branyan with his balky back.  His 2010 line is a clear upgrade over Ken Griffey, Jr., Milton Bradley, Russell Branyan and the cast of thousands who seem to have filled that spot last year.  If Zdurencik's job was to upgrade the offensive over last year's execrable model, a one year deal with Cust should help.

I've already written about the catching black hole for the Mariners, but I was shocked when the GM ran out and dropped a $7 million deal on Miguel Olivo.  You may remember Olivo, he was the incredibly uncomfortable looking young man that came to the M's with Jeremy Reed, and Michael Morse in the Freddy Garcia trade in 2004.  He caught 104 torturous games for the M's before being shipped off the next year to the Padres for a few bags of field chalk, a case of scalp oil for Bill Bavasi, and spare parts for Ichiro's pitching machine.  The verdict on Olivo was he was a poor handler of pitchers, a dreadful hitter and a passed ball machine.
 
Times change, and as Olivo has developed he's definitely a different player.  In most ways that's good.  He's shown himself to be a much better hitter than he was with the 2004 M's, with a .269/.315/.449 line last year with the Rockies.  He's shown he has some pop in his bat, hitting  at least 12 home runs in each of the last five seasons, including 23 homers with the Royals in 2009.  The latter is significant as the K like Safeco is not a hitters park.  While Olivo led the planet in passed balls with 10, it's still six less than the combined total  for Adam Moore and Rob Johnson.  Even with that, Olivo led all catchers in the major league in defense, according to the Dewan Rating System with a value of 14.  His rSB rating against base stealers also leads the majors with 11, so the M's are getting a fine defender.

Olivo does bring some questions.  Olivo has never been a patient hitter.  His .315 on base average was the best of his career.  Hopefully this shows some maturity and growing patience at the plate.  He's also a right hander pull hitter coming to the graveyard of right handed pull hitters and the scatter chart shows this tendency.  As many other writers have already indicated, this looks like the second coming of Jose Lopez.  Hopefully Olivo recognizes this approach will not work at home, but I'm not holding my breath.

Miguel Olivo, good or bad?  I admit I hated this signing when I first heard it.  I had several reasons, the first being that I remembered his first sojourn in Seattle and Miguel's ability to do much of anything well.  But, that's not fair.  In fact the M's are getting a very good defensive catcher, passed balls notwithstanding.  Pitch calling ability is not clear and that was a rap on him in 2004-5.  There's no question this provides an offensive boost to the catching spot.  I'm not fooling myself, Olivo isn't Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez, but production from the catching position was so poor in 2009, that this upgrade simply adds one more weapon, however limited, to improve the Mariner offense.  If I have one qualm it is about the development of Adam Moore and whether this holds him back.  At least Olivo's deal is only two years and does not involve Bavasi-like money.  Moore's response to the signing was encouraging, telling the News Tribune's Ryan Divish that based on last-year's performance by the catchers this signing wasn't a surprise  

“It’s not going to change anything for me,” Moore said. “I’m going to continue to work hard to earn that job in spring training. It’s not going to change my mindset.”

I'll close with comments made by Jack Zdurencik to Brock and Salk  on December 8th, the M's GM voiced his unhappiness and frustration with the slow development of young Mariners prospects.  The Olivo signing is simply a message to Moore and others that the clock is ticking on their major league careers and if they don't give maximum effort, if development does not come with their time of service, the Mariners won't sit idly by and guarantee their place on the team.

 

Jack, If I Could Have Just One Wish

Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times has an interesting interview with Chuck Armstrong regarding some of the extravagant salaries paid to recent free agent signings.  Armstrong specifically referred to Jason Werth's seven year $126 million deal with the Nationals.

Not going to happen happen for the M's.  They already have too much money out on bets, some of which didn't work out well.  They're still choking on the four year $48 million deal Bill Bavasi signed with Carlos Silva, ahem, complicated by extra goodies included in the subsequent trade for Milton Bradley.  There are still $5 million out on the Jack Wilson signing, he of the perpetually injured hamstrings.  Bad deals, lots of money that will never be recouped on value.

If I could make one wish, it is that we spend the dough for a legit run producer at DH.  While I've seen Bradley penciled in here, I just lack faith the man will get the job done.  We're two years removed from his amazing year in Texas when he led the league in OPS.  2009 was bad and 2010 was atrocious.  Bradley is rarely able to play more than 120 games, and then what.  We're looking at Matt Tuiasosopo as DH, and no offense intended to Matt, but he's not an answer. 

The DH spot should be a spot for legitimate run producers.  Guys who can get on base, hit for a decent average with at least good gap power.  No defensive acumen is required, though if your designated hitter can play a position without untterly butchering it that's a bonus.  Speed is nice too, but that would be like hoping for a pony and a new iPad on your birthday, perhaps a little much. 

I'm not suggesting a respectable DH will land the Mariners in the division race, much less the World Series.  However, a run-producer at the position will help this team win.  If Eric Bedard is healthy, if Michael Pineda pitches as advertised, the Mariners rotation shapes up to be above average-enough to keep them in games, enough to keep fan interest.  But if the M's run out an offense that again scores as historically few runs as they did last year their fan will continue to shrink like the glaciers on Mount Rainier.

That said, I see Jack Cust may be near signing with the M's.  Good move, bad move? I'm not a big Cust fan because I don't think he represents what I like as a baseball player.  On the other hand, I think he's a prototypical DH.  Can't play the field at all, but he is someone who gets on base and can hit the ball a long way.  If he doesn't do those things, he strikes out a lot.  He's healthier than Russell Branyan and slower than molasses in January.  Not my first choice, but he'll make the M's better.

What to do about catching. Where have you gone Dan Wilson?

Dan Wilson remains the best catcher in Mariner history

Dan Wilson retired from the Seattle Mariners in 2005.  He caught 1,237 games  over his 13 year career.  Wilson wasn’t blessed with Ivan Rodriguez’s arm or Johnny Bench’s bat.  He wasn’t a big guy-tall at 6’3”, but only 190 lbs., 15 pounds lighter than Rodriquez and 20 pounds lighter than Lance Parrish, but he was a great defensive catcher, blocking the plate and lassoing balls in the dirt with the best in the game. In his 14 seasons with Seattle, he allowed 42 total past balls. To compare, Johnny Bench, a Hall of Fame catcher, caught about 500 more games, and allowed 94.  Perhaps Wilson’s greatest talent was his ability to work with pitchers and stay on the same page with them.  He called a great game. Though Wilson was not a great bat, he hit enough to keep himself in the lineup, and surrounded by great hitters for much of his career-Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey,Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner and a swarm of somewhat less talented power bats, Wilson’s other strengths were much more important.

Wilson, second from left with teammates Jay Buhner, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Ken Griffey,Jr in 2010

Ben Davis

Miguel Olivo

Pat Borders

Rene Rivera

Yorvit Torrealba

Wiki Gonzalez

Miguel Ojeda

Kenji Johjima

Jamie Burke

Rob Johnson

Guillermo Quiroz

Adam Moore

Josh Bard

Eliezer Alfonso

The foregoing is list of the catchers who have filled in for or tried to replace Wilson since the 2002 season.  Each of them is eminently forgettable.   With the possible exception of Johjima, none showed the consistency, leadership, defensive prowess, or bat needed to win the position and keep it over the long haul. 

Last year the Mariners started the season with Rob Johnson and Adam Moore on their major league rosters.  Both had fine minor league careers.  Johnson hit .300 his last full year in the minors,  and showed a little power and speed.  Unfortunately , a series of injuries rendered Johnson unable to sufficiently block balls in the dirt, and off-season surgery after the 2009 season didn’t helpt.    Though Johnson was praised by pitchers, his .191/.293/.282 and nine passed balls in 60 games resulted in a return to Tacoma

Right behind him was the highly regarded Moore, a big guy with a big bat. .  Moore was hurt off and on and played only 61 games.  His numbers .193/.232/.294 and seven passed balls wasn’t an improvement.  Josh Bard actually turned in the most serviceable numbers, but he was injured mid season and played in only 39 games.  Bard is not on the M’s 40 man roster. 

Adam Moore swinging the bat well in Spring Training 2010.

I am an Adam Moore fan.  I believe he has the tools to be a major league catcher, but at age 26 this is the year when he’ll have to show enough development to make the job his.  This is also the year when the Mariners need to provide Moore with veteran help through trade or free agency. 

The list of available catchers is not formidable.  They are veterans, some of whom have had nice seasons, but not anybody who is going to light your fire.  Those catchers are already gone-Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, John Buck to name a few.  Not only are the best, those who can hit as well as catch gone, but it’s clear the M’s want somebody who is cheap.  That’s great, because virtually all the catchers available are over 30, and are likely back-up material.

Gerald Laird was terrible with the bat last year.  He posted .207/.263/.304 in 299 at bats.  This is well below his career average of .242/.300/.358.  It’s also below his last couple of years with Texas and Detroit. On the other hand, Laird’s defense has been quite good. According to Kurt Mensching on SB Nation, Laird should have been considered for a Gold Glove for his defense, and might have if not for that Mauer guy.  Laird, 31,  made $3.95 million in 2010.  Detroit cut him loose when they signed Victor Martinez. The Mariners could probably get him for a lot less

At 36, Bengie Molina says he’s good for one more year.  That he showed some real leadership with the Giants last year is probably enough to put the Mariners out of the running for his services.  Nevertheless, he would be a great mentor for Moore.  Molina made $4.5 million in 2010 and probably too pricey for the pinched M’s.

Last, but not a terrible option, is to bring back Josh Bard.  He performed creditably behind the plate and his line of .214/276/.347 was better than Johnson or Moore.  Signed to a minor league contract last year, his services would likely be very cheap.  Maybe not a flashy choice, but better than being forced into the duo of Moore and Johnson. 

There are other catchers who might be better.  A.J. Pierzynski has always been a good catcher with a good, left-handed bat.  But his nettlesome disposition would not fit in well with a young team trying to build chemistry.  Miguel Olivo has a good bat, probably most power among those catchers left, but he’s a lousy defensive catcher and is not known for his work with pitchers.  Both are also Type B free agents and would require compensation.  

While we may recall fondly the days of Dan Wilson corralling Jamie Moyer's circle change in the dirt, or climbing the ladder to grab Randy Johnson's heater, those days are gone forever.  Adam Moore must step up to be the man, and the M's need to find him a little bit of help.