Miguel Olivo and family farewells

Well, Miguel Olivo did it again last night.  A solo homer to give Jason Vargas an insurance run in the eighth, and when that didn't quite work out, a two run double in the 10th to give the M's the win, 7-4.  I was an unenthusiastic supporter of Olivo's signing this winter.  I saw a catcher who was an upgrade, but only a modest one, over our corps from hell last year, and who potentially was blocking the development of Adam Moore. Hoo boy, I was wrong, and I admit it.

Miguel Olivo's thousand watt smile is just one reason to like what he's done for the Mariners.

Right this moment Olivo is carrying this team.  Geoff Baker had a great blog post about Olivo's contributions this morning.  While his numbers won't jump off the charts at you at .246/.298/412 they continue to rise.  And the guy has just been clutch.  The homers and RBI doubles have come when we needed them, not in the middle of some rout or off some late-inning mop up guys.  His extra base hits last night both put the Mariners ahead, and he's been like that ever since his bat awakened from a long frozen slumber in Detroit on April 26th.

All is not perfect.  While Olivo is in the top five for most defensive ratings, he leads catchers in errors with four, and is second in passed balls with five.  Miggy was a passed ball producing machine last year, and he's on track for more than his ten of 2010. Even so, it's clear Mariners pitchers like throwing to him, and that's huge.  It must account for some of their success. 

Last, but not least, I have no way to back this up, but I believe Olivo is a team chemistry guy.  Again, I point to the pitching staff.  Yes, Felix is great, but how much confidence does Miguel give to young guys like Pineda?  Does Olivo give the amazing Eric Bedard the confidence to use his changeup more and have success, despite the slight loss of speed off his fastball?  How much is he responsible for the continued improvement by Vargas and Fister?  The man is always smiling.  And it's an amazing, electric smile.  He loves to play the game, he loves to win, and he loves to be a Mariner.  He's my kind of guy.

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This week our baseball family lost two wonderful ballplayers.  Jose Pagan died on June 7th from complications from Alzheimer's disease.  He was 76.  Born in Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, Pagan broke in with the San Francisco Giants in 1959.  Primarily an infielder, and chiefly playing 3rd base and shortstop, Pagan was one of those nifty glove guys.   He was a useful bat, and could do the little things, bunt and hit and run.  Pagan had one of his better years with the Giants in their pennant year of 1962.  He was traded in '65 to the Pirates, where he may be better remembered as a contributor to the Clemente-led world championship.  Pagan finished his career with the Phillies in 1973.  Pagan died in Seabring, Florida.

Jim Northrop's two run triple off Bob Gibson (!!!) beats the beloved Cardinals in the 1968 World Series.  I've never forgiven him.

Jose Pagan was a handy utility infielder by the time he was willing silly Pirates hats on the 1972 World Championship team.

Jim Northrup died June 8th at the age of 71.  He'd been ill for a number of years and his passing was not unexpected.  Northrup came up with the Detroit Tigers in 1964 and played in the outfield with Al Kaline.  Known as a no-nonsense guy, Northrup became a leader on the 1968 world -champions.  I've never forgiven him for his game winning triple off Bob Gibson to win the 7th game.  When manager Mayo Smith was gone after the '72 season, Northrup could not abide the managerial style of Billy Martin and got himself traded, first to the Expos and then Baltimore where he finished his career in 1975.  From 1966-1973 Northrup was very good.

Now we know it's for real

I caught most of last night's and tonight's spanking of the Devil Rays.  It's fun to watch great pitching and good defense, but night after night it's hard to watch the Mariners struggle to scratch out a run or two.  It's frustrating to watch any of the M's starters turn in a great performance, but lose because the offense couldn't score three runs to win 3-2.

Miguel Olivo homered into a stiff wind to contribute to the M's 7-0 win over the Rays

Beyond that though is the frustration I feel when I look at the team stats.  According to ESPN, the Mariners are in the top five in MLB for all the four major team pitching stats.  They're in the bottom five for the four major offensive stats.  It's difficult to be optimistic about the team's chances in a pennant race when the team can pitch but can't score.  Even tonight's seven run outburst, aided by three homers, tallied only four hits.

 However, one statistic I was thrilled to see was in run differential.  For the first time in years, the Mariners runs scored actually exceed the runs allowed.  Even in 2009, when the M's were 85-77, largely because of good pitching and defense, they were a -52 in run differential.  Admittedly we're only 57 games into the season but tomorrow the M's are a +3 in run differential.  That's largely because they play pretty close games, and recently have been winning lots of them.  The last two nights detonation of Tampa Bay pitching has given them a +13 run differential in this series and allowed the M's to move into positive territory for the first time in, well, years. The last time a Mariner team finished the season in positive territory was in 2003, when the Mariners finished out of the money with 93 wins.

 Do I think this will continue?  My fingers are crossed, but I doubt it.  The pitching will remain solid, but I can't imagine them keeping up this home run eruption, and there aren't enough guys who can hit in this lineup.  I'm still looking forward to Ackley and maybe Carp coming up to the big club.  Count me among those who is opposed to a major trade this year--unless they're able to stay close and make a good deal on a one year player.  This team needs to hang on to as many chips as possible, and keep getting younger.

My name is Jack and I hit homers

sI just couldn't help myself.  Jack Cust homered in the first inning of the Mariners game in Minneapolis.  You go Jack. Hopefully Cust's second homer will come a little more quickly than his first.

Go git 'em Jack

Whither now Seattle Mariners?

The beloved M's are in San Diego, having won five straight and six of their last seven. The AL West Division is thin, and the home team have deposed the A's from third place. They are cellar dwellers no longer.  Despite their 22-24 record the Mariners are only 1.5 games behind the division-leading Rangers.  It's nearly Memorial Day, and by all accounts the boys in blue and silver were expected to be irrelevant.

The King.  Felix Hernandez left thirteen strikeout victims in his wake at Petco Park Sunday.

This is not a pretty team, at times.  They are bi-polar.  Their offense is vile. Crap.  Bad, with a capital bad.  In runs scored they rank 28th, and batting average, 29th, next to last, in the majors.  For the past two years, they've raised frustratingly stranding runners on base to an art form.  They are so bad at failing to score or advance runners with consistency, their un-funny follies should simply be termed "Marinersesque."  For example:

It's the third inning of the 2012 World Series, the Phillies lead the Yankees three games to none.  In a 0-0 ballgame, Jeter leads off with a walk and Robinson Cano, trying to hit the ball to right side and advance the runner, taps a soft liner back to Doc Halliday, who doubles Jeter off first.

Joe Buck:  Gee Tim, that was just poor execution.  When your team is struggling, you have to be able to execute and do the little things to help them score.

Tim McCarver:  Yeah Joe, you got that one right.  Playoff baseball is about execution and if you're going to beat Halliday and stay in this thing you've got to execute.That was just Marinersesque.

It's been nearly two weeks since the Mariners made Milton Bradley take his act on the stage, the first one out of town and called up Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson.  Both are struggling to produce consistently, as one would expect of untried rookies.  Yet there's no denying, they both bring an athleticism and energy to the team that was lacking before.  Peguero homered twice in the last home stand and has looked both tremendous and clumsy in left field.  Friday's play at the wall to rob Jorge Cantu of a homer and throw to Brendan Ryan in time to relay to first base to double off Ryan Ludwick was a thing of beauty.  At other times, Peguero has been just short of making the great plays.  The dropped ball in the ninth inning of the same game is an example.  Wilson, trapped as the right hander in a platoon, hasn't had the chance to play much yet.  But Saturday's gapper was a game breaker and insured the demise of the even weaker hitting Padres.  It's unclear exactly how much these two young players will contribute to the offensive improvement of this team.  Just too small a sample size.

Michael Pineda leads the team with six wins and is only going to get better.  He's a hard worker and studies the game carefully-oh and he throws 97 mph with control.

Eric Bedard is my favorite story of the spring.  Opposing batters don't care for him quite so much.  Ask the nine Padres he struck out on Friday.

 The pitching, on the other hand, has simply been beyond expectations.  Win or lose, all five starters, Felix, Pineda, Bedard, Vargas and Fister, are giving the Mariners seven plus innings per start.  They put the team in a position to win.  In their last four games, the Mariners have allowed one earned run.  The pitching staff is ranked 5th in ERA and WHIP, and will only climb as numbers improve daily. The bullpen, except for the notorious four day run a week ago, when Brandon League repeatedly melted down in save situations, has been better than believed before the season began.  League, David Pauley, Jamie Wright, and Aaron Laffey have simply been very good.  The starters and big four bullpen staff have been so good that Jeff Gray, acquired a couple weeks ago on a waiver wire deal, hasn't pitched since he came over to the boys from Royal Brougham. The Mariners have a playoff caliber pitching staff that could take the team deep into the playoffs . . . if they only could score enough runs.

Despite his opening night meltdown, Jason Vargas has been a steady starter for the Mariners. 

Mr. Fister.  When he's on, he's very good.

So where does this leave the M's going forward.  This team was assembled as a rebuilding team.  I predicted it would win only 70-75 games.  We are just past the quarter pole and headed for the first third of the season at 54 games.  The Rangers suffered key injuries to their big run producers and closer and have not run away with the division flag.  The Angels are showing the weaknesses I believed they'd have.  Oakland, like Seattle, is run challenged, and two of their pitchers just went on the disabled list.  All four teams are within two games of each other but it's still early in the season.

Dustin Ackley is the heir apparent to the starting second base job; it's just a matter of time. He may be a very good hitter, but he isn't a savior.  The M's need at least one more bat.

There is a lot of comment on the blogs urging the Mariners to go for it and acquire the bats needed to win consistently.  At some point Dustin Ackley will come up and, hopefully, contribute to the Mariners' struggling offense. How quickly he will adjust to major league pitching is an open question.  Assuming he can make even modest progress as a major league hitter, he will be an upgrade over Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy, and should take over the number two slot.  I was able to catch the Rainiers game yesterday and watched the young man play in the field.  He turned a couple of double plays, and hit an absolute laser over the right field fence for a game winning home run.  He will be ready soon, and will make a difference.

What about another bat?  A consistent uprgrade at left field, third base, or designated hitter are all possibilities in my mind. It's still early, but if the left field situation is unsettled, if Figgins and Cust continue to struggle, and the M's are close to the division lead, or (silly me) leading the division at the end of June, Jack Z must pull the trigger on a deal that will improve the Mariner offense.  The M's have a waning fan base, but during these little winning streaks, when the pitching is so dominant, maybe the best there is in the game right at this moment, there is a spark and every long suffering Mariners fan, waiting for a sniff of redemption believes, that with just a little help, we could win it all. Okay, our division.  We can smell it Jack, get us a bat dammit.

Shootout on Edgar Martinez Way

Endured a sad weekend of Mariner baseball.  The White Sox are horrible, they've proved it to all of baseball for over a month, and the M's managed to lose two of three at home.  Mostly no hitting and sloppy play led to their demise.

The sad part is they steamed into Safeco on Tuesday the 3rd and dispatched a faltering Texas Ranger team in two of three games, were competetive in Pineda's Wednesday start.  They won the same way they'd beat up Boston and Detroit in the week prior by putting runners on base, tough pitching and good play in the field.  Chicago comes to town, and it's like we're in Kansas City again, with Wedge getting ready to let everyobdy have it.

The news out of Mariners HQ is not happy news.  Bradley and Langerhans have both been DFA'ed.  Zdurencik said there would be accountability this year and I guess this is a start.  Milton Bradley has not fulfilled our pipe dreams after the Carlos Silva trade last year that he could be an effective hitter for the M's. His recent onfield explosion and lazy play in left field left little doubt among fans he should go.  Both Ryan Divish in the News Tribune and Geoff Baker in the Seattle Times strenuously opined in their respective blogs that Bradley's time was up and should go before the official team announcement was made.

Moving Langerhans was more problematic, but the lefty journeyman couldn't adequately cover centerfield, and wasn't hittin' a lick. Too bad, I liked him in the three years he was here, but in the end you have to have talent. 

The M's called up Mike Wilson and Carlos Peguero to fill the roster spots of the dearly departed.  Peguero already had his cup of coffee during Justin Smoak's bereavement leave.  While he is big, strong and athletic, there is no reason to believe Peguero will rescue the Mariners from the black hole of hitting.  He may show very occasional power, but he will be strike out, hit for a poor average and show athleticism in the field.  He will be the left-handed bookend of the traditional vacant space in Safeco's left field.  Mike Wilson will be the right-handed bookend.  He's a somewhat less mobile version of Peguero, though with a slightly more refined approach to hitting-he'll also strike out a lot, maybe walk a little more, and hit an occasional boomer.  Not enough to scare anyone, however. It is said that Wilson is an athlete with a body like a Greek statue, and unfortunately he plays the field a lot like one.

I don't mean to be a pessimist.  I think the M's had few choices, and I think they've done what they can do to fill the wide open spaces in Safeco's spacious pasture.  It is what it is.  Those responsible have been carried from the field and it's time for new blood, because it can't be any worse.

Why Ichiro Can't Win

I saw my first major league baseball game in 1963.  We were visiting my grandparents in San Francisco and my Dad took me over to Candlestick to catch a game.  It was a day game and the weather was nice, not always a given at the 'Stick.  The Pirates were in town.  I don't remember tons about the game-the Giants won 3-1.  I remember a lot of the players that day.  Mays and McCovey were in the outfield.  Don't remember if Cepeda played, but Gaylord Perry pitched.  For the Bucs it was Clemente and Stargell in the outfield with Mazeroski at 2nd base.  Six hall of famers were on the field.  I wish I remembered more about the game.

Which brings us to Ichiro Suzuki.  Yesterday he was named The Most Dependable Player of the Year by the MLB network.  Why?  He played in all 162 games in 2010.  And those hits, all 214 of them, led the American league, as Ichiro has seven of the last ten years.   Despite his 37 years, Ichiro, who stays in remarkable shape, shows no signs of slowing down in his game, built largely on speed. He is one of the most fun players I've ever watched.  I've seen him hit a grand slam at Safeco to beat the hated Red Sox.  I've watched him make catches at the wall, over the wall, deep in the corner, and seen him gun down base runners going to third.  He's beaten teams with his glove, with his bat, with his arm, and with his legs.  He is one of the best in ways that don't show up in gaudy slugging percentages.

The magic year of 2009.  Ichiro with his friend and hero, Ken Griffey, Jr.

So why are Seattle fans, at least those who comment on blogs, those who seem to be most engaged in the Mariners' shrinking community of followers, so divided on the the question of Ichiro's value to the team.  Some simply call him a "slappy" hitter who contributes little to the success of the M's.  J.J. Putz implied after the disastrous 2008 season that his teammates viewed Ichiro as selfish, and suggested there were elements who wanted to do him physical harm.  Not all are haters, however.  One of my favorite writers, Joe Posnanski, penned a column for SI.com last May enumerating Ichiro's virtues and simply stated he was a one of a kind player.

Ichiro is a one of a kind player.  Unfortunately, he's the one of a kind player whose true value is lost on a team as terrible offensively as the current edition of the Seattle Mariners.  Look at Ichiro by the numbers.  From 2001-2003 the Mariners won 116, 93, and 93 games. Their offense included good hitters:  Brett Boone, John Olerud, Edgar Martinez, Mike Cameron, and even the long forgotten Randy Winn.  They all were above average in OPS +  and a few of them had monster OPS+ seasons of 140 or more. For those who don't know OPS+ is an offensive measure that takes ballpark and other factors into consideration.  An OPS+ of 100 is considered major league average.

Ichiro's lines in those years were:

2001     .350/.381/.457  56sb  127 runs   OPS +  126  6 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2002     .321/.388/.425  31sb  111 runs   OPS +  120  5 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2003     .312/.352/.436  36sb  111 runs   OPS +  112  6 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater

In those years it was not "The Seattle Mariners Offense, featuring Ichiro Suzuki."  Ichiro's job was to get on base, chreate chaos on the basepaths and score runs.  He was a very good leadoff hitter on a pretty decent team and he had a clear role. 

Nobody else can do this.  Out of the box before his swing is finished, Ichiro is the fastest player to 2,000 hits.

2004 is the year of the cataclysm.  Everything went wrong in the first year of Bill Bavasi's magic touch.  The pitching was terrible.   At bat, the Mariners were no better.  Nearly all the moves Bavasi made, Scott Spezio, Rich Aurilia, Hiram Bocachica, the Carlos Guillen trade, were failures.  Only the acquisition of Raul Ibanez worked out. It was the year of Bucky Jacobson, and the year the fine careers of Olerud, Martinez, and Boone quietly ended.

Ichiro, arguably had his best year.  It was the year of the hits record and his line looked like this:

 2004      .372/.414/.455  101 runs  OPS+ 130  2 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater*
* Bucky Jacobsen would count as a third in limited duty.

 That Ichiro scored 101 runs despite his very high OBP demonstrates how weak this team was. As Ichiro raced to catch George Sisler in the record books, it seemed the quest to fulfill that dream superseded his commitment to help the team win.  Bunts for base hits seemed more important than trying to drive in runs by hitting away.  The 99 losses sealed Bob Melvin's fate, and Ichiro 's accomplishment became The Season.

The years 2005-07 presented more failure.  The pitching was at best mediocre and the hitting was often not much better.  2007 seemed to be a year of improvement which proved chimerical, but the team improvement seemed to boost Ichiro's performance.

Ichiro's lines were:

2005      .303/.350/.436  33sb  111 runs 113 OPS+  4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2006      .322/.370/.416  44sb  110 runs 106 OPS+  4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater
2007      .351/.396/.431  37sb  111 runs 122 OPS+  5 teammates with OPS+ 100 or greater

The better the supporting cast, the better Ichiro seems to do.  In this respect, 2004 seems to be an outlier.  His goal of getting 200 hits seems to focus Ichiro, but beyond that, when he has better hitters around him, he's able to accomplish more.  When the team wins more, Ichiro performs better.

Ichiro ranks 6th in outfield assists among active right fielders.

Based on 2007's promise, Bavasi pulled out the stops to win in 2008 and traded for Erik Bedard.  You know the story.  It's not bad enough that Bedard was injured, everyone else underperformed too.  The team lost 101 games, clubhouse chemistry was poisonous, and Ichiro performed well-below his career stats.

2008       .310/.361/.386  43sb  103 runs 102 OPS+  3 teammates with OPS+  100 or greater

2008 is Ichiro's worst statistical year.

2009 was Jack Zdurencik's first as general manager and he put together a team that struggled to score runs, but remained competitive until August.  Again, despite the lack of good hitting, Ichiro seemed to respond to the glorious clubhouse environment, playing with Ken Griffey, Jr., and winning.

 2009     .352/.386/.465  26sb  88 runs 129 OPS+ 4 teammates with OPS+ 100 or better.

 Though 2009 is Ichiro's best year since 2004, it doesn't hide the fact that most of his teammates hit well below league average.  His 88 runs was the first season he didn't score at least 100.  Pitching and defense can only count for so much and at some point you have to cross the pay station

 Which brings us to 2010.  Built on might have beens and wishful thinking, the team crashed on take-off, losing 101 games again.  This might be the most frustrating season in the team's history.  Hitting was bad and the Mariners scored the fewest runs in the major leagues since 1972.  Ichiro's year, complicated by the signing of Chone Figgin,s was a disappointment.  Batting second, Figgins's style was so like Ichiro's and got off to such a slow start that the grounders he once legged out for base hits became double plays, 20 of 'em.  By far the most of Figgins' career.  It was like matter and anti-matter batting one behind the other.

 2010      .315/.359/.394  42sb  74 runs  113 OPS+ 1 teammate with OPS+ 100 or better.
 The teammate was Russell Branyan and his 205 at bats.

 What is a leadoff hitter to do?  What did the other hitters look like?  Chone Figgins 84, Jose Lopez 73, Milton Bradley 80, Franklin Guttierez 87.  And those are the good ones.

 Ichiro Suzuki, together with Felix Hernandez, are the most recognizable names on the Mariners.  Just as Hernandez showed with his Cy Young Award it's possible to be a great pitcher without great run support, Ichiro is a great leadoff hitter, even without the hitters behind him.  Though some years he is greater than others, mostly that's a result of the number of league average hitters that can drive him home. It's unfair to hold him accountable for the failure of his teammates.  His $18 million contract makes him an easy target for the whiners who expect him to morph into Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton.  The M's didn't sign him to be either one of those. Unfortunately Ichiro was not made to be the straw that stirs the drink as Reggie Jackson once was.  Rather, he was intended to be the olive in the martini.  The more the burden of offense falls on Ichiro the less likely he can meet fan expectations. 

 Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com